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One reason I had to hedge on Monday was because I was doing the end of the day
slot at a trading seminar.
The person before me is a great guy and was talking about everything to do with
theory and trading platforms. It was good stuff.
When I came on and started talking about the markets after a little while a guy
in the front row got up in front of everyone and walked out. He might have been
going early but I thought to myself, I know the type of trader you are all theory
and no action. ie you like the way everything works and the analysis but when
it comes down to the practical its not for you. Only when something has happened
and you can analsye would you be interested and as far as you are concerned it
hasnt happened yet.
When I won a trading contest this year the company were a little shirty with
me, they gave me a very good statement and a photo but as a side comment they
said "and we never want to see him again."
I had a comment from a friend of mine yesterday moaning about something to do
with trading but he never said a word to me about the short I've been banging
on about for the last week. Its as if the move I'd been going on about didn't
exist.
All these people are very nice people but its the psychology I'm interested in.
If you win a trading competition and they are a bit huffy with you because you
didn't do it the way that everyone else did then you know you're doing the right
things.
If someone walks out of your seminar because they aren't interested in your views
on the markets you know that the crowd aren't into the move yet.
If someone isn't talking to you about the same move in the markets you are playing
you know there is more to come because you'll get the envy trade, that's the trade
that everyone else has missed, ie they are completely fed up because others are
playing it and will jump on it the next time it set its self up.
I'm not being rude about the three items I mention but I just want to give you
a flavour about crowd psychology and the markets.
Warren Buffet bought Goldman Sachs at the lows at the end of 2008 and the press
were very huffy with him. He'd done the right thing and it moved up 200% in 2009.
He was a winner but at the time the press reckoned he'd got it wrong.
As long as others dont see things the same way you do then youre OK.
Most trading ideas are what the crowd wish to hear. Good trading is doing things
others dont do.
I'm pleased that some are still not interested in this move. |
